Oversupply: Prices for NAND flash and SSDs are falling again

In the upcoming third quarter of the year, NAND flash memory will become cheaper due to the oversupply in the market TrendForce. Likewise, SSDs equipped with it should also get cheaper.

The drop in prices only faltered for a short time

The forecast at the start of the year with SSD prices falling sharply was initially followed in February by a disillusionment from the customer’s point of view: an accident at the factories of Kioxia and Western Digital, which together represent about a third of the global production of NAND, has destroyed several exabytes and caused problems due to a production outage of several weeks. The forecasts were promptly changed from falling prices to rising prices, but at least the local end-consumer market has felt almost none of this.

Price prediction for the third quarter of 2022

The new prognosis of TrendForce now it clearly points in the direction of falling prices for NAND flash memory and for products based on it such as SSDs. The short-term interruption of production has long since passed and factors such as rising inflation and generally falling demand in the PC segment are causing oversupply and full inventory.

Market researchers are therefore currently speculating that prices (spot prices) for NAND flash memory will drop by as much as 5% in the third quarter. According to the report, contract prices for the purchase of whole wafers with NAND chips are even expected to drop by 5-10 percent and had already fallen in May.

Predictions for flash prices in the third quarter of 2022
Flash Price Forecast for Q3 2022 (Image: TrendForce)

While enterprise SSD prices are expected to remain stable due to the high demand supported by so-called hyperscalers, i.e. mainly large cloud data centers, client SSD prices are expected to decline by around 3-8%. In the mobile sector with Universal Flash Storage (UFS) and Embedded MultiMedia Card (eMMC) for products such as smartphones and tablets, prices are expected to drop in the same 3-8% range. “Trends in slow smartphone shipments and cooling of the consumer market remain unchanged“, he describes TrendForce the current situation of this sector.

The prices of SSDs in online retail are already falling

A look at the price comparison already shows a slight downward trend in SSD prices in the entry-level class: more and more offers start at 7 cents per gigabyte.

WD Blue SN570 Price History
WD Blue SN570 Price History
Samsung 980 Pro price history
Samsung 980 Pro price history
WD Black SN850 Price History
WD Black SN850 Price History

The downward trend is clearest in the high-end segment with fast (and more expensive) PCIe 4.0 SSDs. However, increasing competitive pressure has been guaranteeing this for months. The new flagship are Micron’s SSDs with Phison E18 and 176-layer TLC-NAND controllers, such as Corsair MP600 Pro XT (test), Kingston KC3000 or Seagate FireCuda 530 (test). The former top dogs Samsung 980 Pro (test) and WD Black SN850 (test) are no longer the fastest and have become significantly cheaper. For currently only 120 Euros (1TB model) or 12 cents per GB, both are price recommendations for enthusiasts who aren’t looking for the absolute best in performance.

A faster successor to the WD SN850 will soon appear, the SN850X.

If you’re looking for an SSD, you’ll find helpful information in the publishers’ SSD buying advice and community buying advice.

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