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New US lows: Will the upside continue?

  • Nasdaq-100 – WKN: A0AE1X – ISIN: US6311011026 – Rate: 11,967.56 points (Nasdaq)
  • Dow Jones – WKN: 969420 – ISIN: US2605661048 – Price: $ 31,834.11 (NYSE)
  • S&P 500 – WKN: A0AET0 – ISIN: US78378X1072 – Kurs: 3,935.18 Pkt (S&P)
  • Gold – WKN: 965515 – ISIN: XC0009655157 – Kurs: $ 1,851.59000 / oz. (FXCM)
  • Brent crude – WKN: 967740 – ISIN: XC0009677409 – Kurs: $ 107.49500 / bbl. (FXCM)
  • Open End Turbo on NASDAQ 100 – WKN: TT29PV – ISIN: DE000TT29PV8 – Course: € 9,680 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on NASDAQ 100 – WKN: HG3AZD – ISIN: DE000HG3AZD9 – Kurs: € 9,580 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on Dow Jones Industrial Average – WKN: HG3AX6 – ISIN: DE000HG3AX62 – Kurs: € 1,320 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on Dow Jones Industrial Average – WKN: HG2LP9 – ISIN: DE000HG2LP94 – Kurs: € 2,950 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on the S&P 500 – WKN: HG2MMN – ISIN: DE000HG2MMN3 – Kurs: € 3,940 (HSBC)
  • Open End Turbo on the S&P 500 – WKN: HG3AXV – ISIN: DE000HG3AXV6 – Kurs: € 2,010 (HSBC)

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 is down from its all-time high of 16,764 points in November 2021. The index is back in the support zone between 12,439 and 12,208 points, which is the high of September 2020. The index tried to form a small bottom there. this week. However, this attempt failed yesterday. The index slipped back below this support area yesterday following the inflation numbers.

This indicates a continuation of the downward movement since November 2021. However, there is still important support at 11,855 points. Because if the index hits this mark, the downward movement from November 2021 to March 14, 2021 and the downward movement from March 29, 2022 would be the same length on a percentage basis. At these points, the instruments spin again and again.

The downward movement of the Nasdaq 100 is in a crucial phase. If the index quickly returns above 12,439 points, a major recovery could begin. An increase towards 13,542 points or even 14,342 points would therefore be possible.

However, if the index falls below 11,855 points, there is a risk of further downward movement. The next stop points would be the EMA 200 (on a weekly basis) at 11,355 points and the low of September 2020 at 10,678 points and the high of February 2020 at 9,736 points.

To speculate on an upward move in the Nasdaq 100, one could use the leverage certificate with the WKN: TT29PV. This leverage certificate is from HSBC, the term is indefinite and the leverage is 11.96. To speculate on a further bearish move, one could use the leverage certificate with the WKN: HG3AZD. This also comes from HSBC, the term is open end and the leverage is 11.61.
Analysis of the Nasdaq 100 chart
Analysis of the chart of the new US lows: will the downward movement continue?

Dow Jones

After a weak opening yesterday, the Dow Jones initially rallied but was quickly put under pressure and fell throughout the trading day. The index fell below the support zone between 32,272 and 32,009 points and then to a new low in the downward movement from the all-time high of 36,952 points on 05 January 2022.

This confirmed this downward movement. Yesterday’s pullback can be seen as a new sell signal. In the coming days and weeks there is the risk of a further downward movement to around 30,997 points and subsequently to the old all-time high of February 2020 at 29,568 points.

A first approach to improving the chart would be a breakout above 32,752 points. In this case a recovery of up to 34,095 points would be possible.

To speculate on a further downward movement of the Dow Jones, one could use the leverage certificate with the WKN: HG3AX6. This aggressive certificate comes from HSBC, the term is indefinite and the leverage is 22.02. A slightly less speculative variant would be the leverage certificate with the WKN: HG2LP9. This certificate was also issued by HSBC, the term is indefinite and the leverage is 10.08.
Dow Jones-Chartanalyse
Analysis of the chart of the new US lows: will the downward movement continue?

S&P 500

The S&P 500 hit its current all-time high on January 4, 2021 at 4,818 points. It has been on a downward trend since then. In the first phase, the index fell to a low of 4,114 points on February 24, 2022. From a recovery to 4,637 points, the second phase was in the downward movement. The index not only fell below 4,114 points at the end of the day on Monday, but also broke through the next major support zone at 4,056 points. Over the past two days, the index has risen to this level at the start of trading, but has rebounded to the downside on both occasions, marking a new low in the downward movement from the all-time high.

The break of the mark at 4,056 points gave a signal of continuation of the downward movement from the all-time high. This signal is already taking effect. A possible target area for this downward shift would be the area of ​​3,591-3,588 points, the September 2020 high.

In order for the picture of the chart to improve again, the index should return at least above 4,056 points, even better above 4,114 points. So a recovery towards the 200 EMA could start at 4,377 points currently.

To speculate on a further downward movement of the S&P 500, one could use HSBC’s leverage certificate with the WKN: HG2MMN. The term is indefinite and the leverage is 9.34. A much more speculative variant would be HSBC’s leverage certificate with the WKN: HG3AXV. Here too the term is indefinite, the leverage is 18.12.
S&P 500 – Chartanalyse
Analysis of the chart of the new US lows: will the downward movement continue?

Gold

Gold hit an all-time high of $ 2,074 in August 2020. A long corrective movement then began, reaching its low of USD 1,676 quite early in March 2021. But it was only in mid-February 2022 that the correction movement has broken out.

Gold then rose to $ 2,070, nearing an all-time high. Since March 8, 2022, gold is in the process of withdrawing from the corrective move. With yesterday’s low of USD 1,831, gold has now made full use of the maximum scope. A recovery has begun, but there has been no return above the 200 EMA, currently at USD 1,858.

Gold is currently in a crucial phase. If the precious metal shows up now, there could be a big rally over multiple months. Possible goals are $ 2,195 and $ 2,400.

However, if gold fell steadily below USD 1,833, the bullish scenario would vanish. In this case, gold fluctuates over a broad trading range of $ 2,074 to $ 1,676. And within this range, there may be a continuation of the downward movement from March 8 towards USD 1,782 and USD 1,676.

Gold
Analysis of the chart of the new US lows: will the downward movement continue?

Brent

Brent is up sharply from its April 2020 lows of $ 15.93. In January 2022, it managed to break out of the long-term downtrend from its all-time high set in 2008 at $ 147.50. Brent was trading as high as $ 133.08 on March 9.

Since then, the price of oil has been consolidating. In doing so, it repeatedly hit an old upper pullback line. This is currently 102.09 USD. Also yesterday, Brent is back on this trend line. In addition to this trend line, the previous consolidation low at USD 96.90 also plays an important role.

If Brent breaks out of $ 113.96, the consolidation may be over. So there could be another rally to USD 113.08 and perhaps even the all-time high at USD 147.50.

However, if Brent falls below USD 102.09, the bulls will receive the first warning shot. If Brent falls below USD 96.90, it will give a sell signal towards USD 86.71. This would put Brent back on the long-term downtrend broken by its all-time high.

Brent-Chartanalyse
Analysis of the chart of the new US lows: will the downward movement continue?

I wish all readers a successful day and lots of fun with the tradathlon.

Note on transparency: The derivatives presented in the article are selected by the editors. However, we cooperate with selected broadcasters who have a business relationship with BörseGo AG.

Note: Trading in derivatives carries significant risk and can, under certain circumstances, lead to a total loss of the capital invested.

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