Bitcoin (BTC): Golden Pocket processed at $ 26,170
BTC Course: $ 29,032 (previous day: $ 29,260)
Strengths / Short Term Goals: 29.764 / 30.064 USD, 30.612 USD, 32.205 USD, 33.097 USD, 33.714 USD, 34.748 USD, 35.464 USD, 36.587 USD, 37.452 USD, 38.250 USD, 39.003 / 39.322 USD, 39.854 USD, 40.1819 USD
Short-term supports: 28,810 USD, 27,696 USD, 26,170 USD, 25,352 USD, 23,887 USD, 21,892 USD, 19,884 USD
The reasons for the ongoing Bitcoin somersault course
- Bitcoin’s price may gradually recover after dropping to $ 25,352 and is valued at around $ 29,000 at the time of writing.
- Once again, a mix of persistent price weakness in the US Nasdaq technology index, coupled with the strength of the US dollar (DXY) index, has caused selling pressures on the cryptocurrency market.
- Additionally, the massive sell-off in the Terra crypto ecosystem with associated cryptocurrencies Terra (LUNA) and TerraUSD (UST) has caused panic among investors. In the short term, the largest stablecoin, Tether (USDT), also lost its peg to the US dollar, temporarily slipping to $ 0.95, increasing investor concerns about the overall safety of stablecoins.
Reasons for the Bitcoin minimum
- The fact that BTC’s price surpassed the prevailing “Golden Pocket” at USD 26,170 and, despite being able to close slightly below an hourly value on an hourly basis, it was able to close well above this very strong support sign, at least indicates a temporary low.
- The fact that Bitcoin initially turned north at this price level shouldn’t come as a surprise. This strong support level has also been discussed several times in the latest bitcoin price analysis.
- Another factor of recovery in the last trading hours is to be found in the clearly oversold prices of all equity indices. All indicators in the daily and weekly charts indicate at least one temporary technical recovery move.
- The situation is similar when looking at the technical indicators for Bitcoin itself. Here too the RSI indicator shows an oversold status in the daily and weekly chart.
- As the Fear and Greed Index also indicates extreme fear among investors with a value of 12, the likelihood of a recovery rally also increases.
Bullish scenario (BTC)
- After a price drop to a new 52-week low at USD 25,352 early Thursday morning, the Bitcoin price turned significantly north in the morning and is currently trying to hit the psychological price of USD 30,000.
- If the resistance area between USD 29.764 and USD 30.064 per hour is recaptured, the focus should be on USD 30.612. This would also break the EMA50 (orange) and supertrend, which could trigger further price potential.
- Already at USD 30,612 there is another strong obstacle to the bullish field with the 23 Fibonacci retracement cross resistance, the upper Bollinger band and the purple downtrend line.
- If Bitcoin breaks through this resistance without significant setbacks, the next target price will be triggered in the USD 32.205 area. A direct price return to the EMA200 (blue) on the USD 33,097 hourly chart would also be conceivable. In the short term, this area represents the maximum upside target for the next 48 trading hours.
- If, contrary to expectations, this price level is regained even in the long term, the two horizontal resistance signs at USD 33,714 and USD 34,748 will focus as a target mark.
Is the worst over now?
- If these resistance levels are recaptured in the next few days, a subsequent rise to the horizontal resistance at USD 35,464 is conceivable. On the first attempt, a rebound in prices is foreseeable.
- If the bulls also manage to dynamically regain this resistance level, a march to the upper edge of the green resistance zone at USD 36,587 should be planned. This also increases the likelihood of a retest of the tear edge in the USD 37,452 area. Again, greater profit-taking is to be expected.
- Only when this area of resistance is also jumped from the hourly closing price does the focus shift to the next relevant price target at USD 39,322. In addition to the 61 Fibonacci retracement and the prevailing red downtrend line, there is also a zone that has been heavily contested in the past.
- Between USD 39.003 and USD 40.019 it should therefore become increasingly difficult for the bulls to develop further upside potential.
- A dynamic breakout above USD 40,019 is not expected in the short term. A hike to the USD 40,851 maximum bullish price target would be possible. It still seems unlikely that the bullish field will be able to accumulate sufficient purchasing power in the current market environment to recapture this area in the long term.
Bearish scenario (BTC)
- The selling side hit the key overall price target of $ 26,170 early in the morning. Despite a slight undershoot to just over USD 25,000, the bears have increasingly liquidated their short positions here.
- However, the current technical counter-movement should not be overestimated for the moment. While the oversold state over broader time frames suggests an imminent price recovery, the bears are firmly in control.
- Already in the USD 30,000 range, new short positions are expected to open again.
- As already mentioned in the latest price analysis, a new wave of selling is to be expected at any time if the price of BTC falls below USD 37,452.
- If Bitcoin slips back below the USD 28,810 threshold in the next few trading hours, a relapse to USD 27,696 is likely. If possible, this support should not drop below to avoid a retest of USD 26,170.
The sale isn’t over yet
- If even the bulls fail to stabilize the price of BTC in this area and Bitcoin falls below this support level at the hourly closing price, a fresh start to the daily low at USD 25,352 can be expected.
- If all stabilization efforts fail and Bitcoin hits a new low, further horizontal support from the daily chart at USD 23,887 and USD 21,892 will come as a target for investors.
- These supports represent the last possible reversal zones on the way to the psychological $ 20,000 threshold.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page are not a buy or sell recommendation, but only an analyst’s assessment.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD / EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.96.
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