Christian Sewing sees a 50% chance of flexing

orWhether the glass is half full or half empty, it is left open by the CEO of Deutsche Bank. But his tone reveals a hint of pessimism: “I would say that with the central bank’s announcements that they will raise interest rates quite sharply, while it is difficult to give a percentage, the probability of a global recession, even in Europe, is 50. percent lies, “Christian Sewing told the Future of Finance conference in Frankfurt on Wednesday.

While the penguins at the Frankfurt Zoo flaunted their tails outside, in the event hall next door people tended to wear suits, open shirts, or airy suits. Data provider Bloomberg hosted its conference on current developments in financial markets and the economy for the first time since the start of the pandemic. Cucito joined the event via video from Berlin.

Its forecast applies to the second half of 2023. Supply chain problems, rising food prices and the risk of another krona surge, combined with rising interest rates, have weighed on the economy global, Sewing said. Economic difficulties, especially high inflation, also hide political risks: “If inflation rises too much and too fast, this is a danger to democracy.” Unsustainable levels of around 8 percent to less than 4 percent.

The consolidation of European banks does not depend only on the banking union

As for Deutsche Bank, Sewing spoke of the role it should play in consolidating the European banking sector. The institution must have “its house in order” and take sufficient account of the corporate culture in case of acquisitions, Sewing explained. The banking union in Europe, which has so far only been incompletely implemented, Sewing called “not the only prerequisite” for successful transactions. Many bankers cite their absence as the main obstacle to large cross-border mergers in the European Union.

In addition to Sewing, other well-known business representatives attended the conference. Vlad Kliatchko, Bloomberg’s Chief Product Officer, traveled from New York to deliver the welcome speech. In his speech, he talked about the increasingly complex financial markets and the growing demands of financial professionals in view of the growing flow of data: “In one day, there are about 300 billion movements in the financial markets, all of which can be relevant to decision makers. ” The challenge for data providers in the future is to help users and customers with the processing and not just deliver the data to them. Artificial intelligence is the key to this.

Arno Antlitz, CFO of Volkswagen, then spoke. He confirmed the plan to bring Porsche on the stock exchange, despite the adverse financial environment. Antlitz plans to make its track debut in the fourth quarter of 2022.

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