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Checklist at peak: almost there!

  • S&P 500 – WKN: A0AET0 – ISIN: US78378X1072 – Kurs: 3,674.84 Pkt (S&P)

Analysts at financial services provider Oppenheimer have developed a checklist that aims to show when the U.S. stock market is likely to bottom out and when it can go up again. As announced by Oppenheimer at the end of last week, seven out of ten points on the checklist have been ticked.

“Regarding our lowest checklist in the market, seven out of ten indicators have reached their minimum thresholds, but they are. [noch] not so extreme [negativ] like 2009 or 2020, ”Oppenheimer analyst Ari Wald wrote in a note to clients.

The checklist includes, inter alia, items relating to previous market price losses, the duration of the price decline and the number of shares still traded above the moving average over a period of 200 days (SMA 200).

Three points on the checklist have not yet been met: the minimum sell-off duration of seven months has not yet been reached, the number of stocks with new 52-week highs minus the number of stocks with new 52-week lows on the NYSE. has still been reached has fallen to minus 1000 or less and the put / call ratio of the 10-day moving average has not yet risen to 1.0 or above, but recently it was just below 0.98.

Oppenheimer analysts also analyzed how the stock market typically reacts to a 0.75 percentage point rate hike announced by the US Federal Reserve last week. Prior to last week’s hike, there had been 11 Fed rate hikes of 0.75 percentage points or more since 1958, according to the analysis. In eight out of 11 cases, the S&P 500 was higher after 13 weeks, after 26 weeks and after 52 weeks than before the sharp rise in interest rates. On average, the S&P 500 increased 2.7% at 13 weeks, 4.1% higher at 26 weeks, and 8.8% higher at 52 weeks.

As also noted in the analysis, the S&P 500 hit a new 18-month low last week. While this is actually used to define a bearish cycle and not as a signal, in 2016, as well as 2018 and 2020, the stock market reversed shortly after hitting an 18-week low, according to Oppenheimer’s analysis.

S & P-500 chart

Meanwhile, in a customer note released late last week, Bank of America compared the current bear market with history. According to the analysis, the average bear market in the US stock market lasted 289 days and caused an average market drop of 37.3%.

According to the “typical bear market”, the S&P 500 would find a low at 3,000 points. The S&P 500 was around 23.6% below its all-time high based on the closing price, which was reached in early January 2022.

If the market actually found a low of 3,000 points, investors could expect strong price gains over the next period. If the low was followed by a typical bull market, it would last 64 months and take the S&P 500 to 6,000 points, according to Bank of America analysis.


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