Cars will become even scarcer and more expensive this year
Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer
According to a forecast by automobile expert Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, vehicle sales will drop below the level of the 2020 Crown crisis. In China, sales are also likely to decline. This also has an impact on prices.
D.The global auto market is threatening to contract this year. Ferdinand Dudenhöffer of the Center Automotive Research (CAR) in Duisburg predicts it. “Cars have gotten scarce,” he says. Semiconductors have been missing for months, lockdowns in China are currently slowing logistics and the war in Ukraine has also affected companies in Europe.
According to his forecasts, sales on the global auto market in 2022 will drop below the level of the Corona crisis in 2020. He expects only 67.6 million cars to be sold worldwide, a decline of 5.3%. compared to the previous year.
Dudenhöffer predicts a 9% decline in the US and 6% in Germany. In China, sales are also expected to decline by 2.1%. If this prediction comes true, the automotive market would shrink below the 2012 level. According to CAR, the sector recorded a record sales in 2017 with 84.4 million newly registered cars.
Dudenhöffer’s prediction is more pessimistic than that of other institutes. Information service IHS Markit, for example, lowered its forecast for the global auto market in mid-April, but still speculates on growth. BMW boss Oliver Zipse predicted sales at the previous year’s level for him in 2022 at the annual general meeting.
But he also warned: “The situation in the world remains tense”. Dudenhöffer explains that supply chains have become full of holes: “And when things go well again, we will be in 2023”. ‘only heard in new cars, even used ones are rare.
This has an impact on prices. As early as 2021, manufacturers canceled discounts and phased out inexpensive vehicle variants. Now they have to pass on the rise in raw material prices and the costs of underutilized factories to fewer vehicles. “Further price increases are to be expected in the coming months,” says Dudenhöffer.
The automakers say the same thing: “It cannot be ruled out that further price increases will be needed,” said Hildegard Wortmann, Volkswagen’s Sales Director at the Group’s Annual General Meeting this week.
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