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All documents with interest rate risks fly out of deposits

Dusseldorf After high energy costs and continuing supply chain problems, a third question came to the fore on Friday: Will the US Federal Reserve block the economy with its increasingly aggressive tightening policy? These problems weighed heavily on corporate profits.

Since prices are also sliding on the bond market, which is developing in the opposite direction to yields, capital market expert Thomas Altmann of the QC Partners investment house is certain: “Anything that somehow carries a risk interest rate flies via wallet. “

As a result, the Dax recorded its largest daily loss in six weeks this Friday and was down 2.5% to 14,143 points from trading. Yesterday, Thursday, the leading index closed at 14,502 points, up nearly one percent.

On Thursday evening, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell prepared investors for aggressive interest rate hikes. A 0.5 percentage point hike in key interest rates at the next meeting in early May “is definitely an option.” This speech had already caused significant price losses for US stock exchanges.

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This announcement came as no surprise, as the market had long priced 50 basis points higher in May. The novelty is that four hikes in interest rates are suddenly expected in the US, or 50 basis points each.

According to the Chicago CBOE Derivatives Exchange, most professionals now assume an interest rate of between 3.0 and 3.25 percent. As of Tuesday of this week, this value was between 2.5 and 2.75 percent at the end of the year. Unsurprisingly, US government bond yields are also rising significantly.

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On Friday, this value for a ten-year bond was back at 2.967 percent, close to the multi-year high. The yield on two-year US government bonds, which react particularly sensitively to monetary policy, was now at 2.75%. In September last year, this figure was 0.212%.

Investor sentiment is not signaling a slump

However, investors need not panic. If the sentiment analyzes are right, there shouldn’t be a new slump like in the period between early February and early March, when the Dax fell more than 3,000 points.

Already on Wednesday evening, behavioral economist Joachim Goldberg had predicted profit taking of between 14,500 and 14,550 points after evaluating the Frankfurt Stock Exchange’s survey of professionals and private investors, which “should represent a certain obstacle, at least temporarily”. Although the Dax was even able to climb to 14,598 points yesterday, Thursday, sales started there.

Overall, Goldberg currently sees the Dax in a slightly better starting position for further price hikes in the coming trading days, even though “trees shouldn’t grow into the sky”.

Sentiment expert Stephan Heibel also said after evaluating Handelsblatt’s Dax-Sentiment survey that extremely negative reports could cause a sell-off, but that it should “only be short-lived.”

The outcome of the French weekend elections could pose a risk to the markets. Apparently, all stockbrokers are taking on a second presidency from Emmanuel Macron. A Marine Le Pen win should mean significant price losses for the markets.

Look at the individual values

LYMPH: The software group failed to convince investors with its quarterly data. The share fell more than five percent at times, only to end up with a decline of 2.1 percent. While the software giant increased revenue thanks to increased demand for its cloud offering, operating income declined thanks to higher expenses related to the war in Ukraine, investments in research and development and marketing.

The price loss also weighs on the Dax, because SAP is the second heaviest Dax value with a market value of 116 billion euros. Linde alone is heavier with 153 billion.

There is a central support zone for SAP shares in the 95 EUR price range. If prices here don’t stabilize over the long term, the stock is threatened by a multi-year downtrend.

That would be another loan for the Dax. In the year of the company’s 50th anniversary, SAP stock is miles away from its previous investor favorite role.

Team Viewer: According to stock brokers, SAP’s price losses are also driving Teamviewer down. Shares of the software house lost nearly six percent up to € 12.09 and thus marked the lowest level since mid-March. The newspaper was down 3.1% from trading.

Rhine metal: The shares rose in the MDax small cap index up to 3.3%, reaching a record value of 225 euros. A stockbroker refers to an increase in UBS’s target price. The analysts of the big Swiss bank now see the cards of the Düsseldorf armaments group at 251 euros.

Since the beginning of the year, Rheinmetall’s shares have already risen by 160%. At the end of the trading week, the stock was still up 0.2%.

Adler Group: In a special investigation, the audit firm KPMG was unable to refute all allegations made by British short seller Fraser Perring against real estate investor Adler Group. According to the Adler Group, the report relieves them of allegations of systematic fraudulent transactions.

The news was initially well received on the stock exchange. At times, the Adler share price increased by 14.5 percent to 13.29 euros. However, the card has lost around half its value since June last year. At the time, the card was trading at € 27.74. At the end of trading, the stock was up by 1.3%.

Two stocks traded at a dividend discount on Friday: Covestro and Schaeffler.

Covestro paid € 3.40, the closing price on Thursday was € 46.37. The dividend payment is also the main reason why the stock was listed significantly lower: it closed trading down 10.4%.

Schaeffler pays EUR 0.50, the closing price on Thursday was EUR 6.00. The newspaper closed with a fall of 11%.

Dax technical analysis

In the medium term: The downtrend of the Dax since the beginning of the year has remained intact. Only sustainable listings above 15,000 points should change something in this starting position. The leading index just failed at this mark on March 29 with its daily high of 14,952 points. So far, the price gains are just a so-called bear market rally.

Short term: From the beginning to the end of March, the Dax had a 2500 point rally. And the leading index is currently processing these gains. The lowest point of this short-term bearish move since the end of March is 13,887 points. Technical analysts call this a minimal correction, which is common after such a dynamic rally.

Here you can go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current highs and flops in the Dax.

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