Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess stubbornly paints Tesla on the one hand as a model and on the other as not invincible. Last July, after the VW ID.3 started off promisingly as the first electric car of a new generation , spoke of a good chance of electrically overtaking Tesla by 2025. The gap widened further by the end of the first quarter of 2022, but in May Diess said the goal was still achievable. And a market research service now predicts Volkswagen will be just ahead of Tesla with electric cars as early as 2024.
VW electric cars before Tesla and BYD in 2025
Through 2021, Volkswagen Group sales of pure electric vehicles increased 96%, faster than Tesla, where deliveries increased 87%. However, the absolute number at VW was only about half at 453,000. And in the first quarter of this year, the German group grew 65 percent to nearly 100,000 pure electric cars compared to the same period last year, but Tesla grew a little faster to 67 percent despite the higher base. .
At least for this year, Volkswagen shouldn’t have a chance to get even closer to Tesla. According to a press release on a new study released Tuesday, Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), a research brand from the news agency of the same name, agrees: Tesla is expected to maintain its position as a leader in purely electric cars for at least 18 years. months it in it. But the German VW group is the only competitor on the road to overtaking Tesla in terms of the volume of electric cars.
This should also be possible by 2024, as can be seen from the text and a graph with forecasts for the most important companies. That year, BI expects about 2.2 million in sales for Tesla and about 2.3 million electric cars for Volkswagen. In the following year, both should continue to grow and VW should remain at the top with a narrow gap. Starting this year, Bloomberg sees BYD from China as the number 3 in the global electric car market. This is surprising given that other electric vehicle observers are more likely to expect a duel between Tesla and BYD in 2022.
Manufacturers from the United States and Japan hesitate
Regardless of distribution, the expected growth for electric cars is high: according to the BI analysis, global demand will more than double by 2025. However, new customers are said to be mainly attracted to Tesla, VW and BYD, while other Western companies do not by far exceed one million sales of electric cars. Only towards the end of the decade is it conceivable that other US or Japanese manufacturers will advance into the world top 3 with new models. Because there is still little profit incentive for more electric cars because battery prices are rising and the volume is still moderate. By 2025, more brands could reach the necessary critical mass, Bloomberg Intelligence writes, but makes no concrete predictions beyond this year.